THE ONE THING

1. How to Avoid Survivorship Bias as a Leader

During World War II, military leaders had a challenge.

They wanted to add more armor to American planes to minimize the chances of getting shot down by enemy fighters.

The challenge was that armor is heavy.

Too much of it makes the planes go slower and use more fuel.

Too little of it doesn’t protect them.

So to optimize its placement, the military looked at data of bullet holes on returning planes.

Some deduced that they should concentrate the armor on the red dots because that’s where the planes were getting hit the most.

But Abraham Wald, a brilliant mathematician from the Statistical Research Group, looked at the problem differently.

He reasoned that the armor should be placed on sections where there were no bullet holes (the engines).

That’s because those missing holes were on planes that didn’t return to be analyzed since they were shot down over enemy territory.

This concept is called “survivorship bias,” and it’s a lesson from a book called How Not to Be Wrong by Jordan Ellenberg.

It’s a brilliant example of why learning from failures is sometimes more valuable than learning from successes.

Learning from failures (missing planes) was more helpful than from successes (returning planes) in this case.

The takeaway

Survivorship bias is a type of sample selection bias where you look at a sample of data that is not representative of the entire population.

One way to minimize its effects is to scrutinize your data sources and ensure you’re not omitting information about events that failed.

INSIGHTFUL THOUGHTS

2. The Most Important Job of a CEO (According to Steve Jobs)

Here’s a great summary (and short video) of Steve Jobs talking about the most important job for someone like him.

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WORDS I LIKE

4. On The Importance of Continuous Learning (& Permanent Beta)

THE 80/20

5. An 80/20 Tip You Can Apply Today

Here’s a low-effort, high-impact tip you can use with your team today:

• What: To increase the chances that something gets done on time, let the person owning the task know that you’ll be altering your original plans because of their help.

• Why: This develops a sense of obligation because they will realize that a withdrawal of their commitment will result in some sort of disturbance to you.

• Example: “Monday at 3 pm sounds good—I’ll go ahead and move my two other scheduled appointments to make sure I’m free at that time to discuss the draft because this is super important to me”